Knight/Swift projections after reporting a big drop in profits for Q1:• Continued softness in freight demand with non-contract rates trending below contract rates through the first half of 2023
• Capacity continues to exit at an accelerating rate
• Freight volumes begin to improve during Q3
• Spot pricing bottoms out in Q2 and begins recovering in 2nd half of 2023
• Expect trailer pool service to continue to be a differentiator when demand recovers
• LTL demand pressured but remains more stable than truckload
• LTL improvement in revenue (excluding fuel) per hundredweight year-over-year
• Inflationary pressures ease in many cost areas but remain elevated on a year-over-year basis
• Equipment and labor availability continues to improve, particularly for large carriers
• Demand in the used equipment market weakens as small carriers struggle.
Diesel: Improving trends (Not necessarily reflected in the street prices)
Exxon refinery expansion: $2 billion project increases capacity for transportation fuels by 250,000 barrels per day. While it is not enough to make up for 2021 + 2022 closures, it is a step in the right direction.