Supply Chain Optimization

Gartner Symposium XPO 2024 Conference Highlights

I am at the Gartner conference this week. Today’s keynote speaker was not a Gartner person. He drew a laugh when he said things must be wrong when a non-supply-chain guy, a risk consultant, was leading off. His comments resonated:

The good news:
  • The EC is getting stronger:
    • With a 25% Labor party will win in the UK and reinstitute a customs union with the EC
    • Centralized defense 
  • After India's elections, Modi will have 80% approval, and stability will continue.  Modi doesn’t care who wins in the US elections — India is going its own way.  Unlike China, the Indian economy is stable and growing
  • US/China relationship is “well calibrated.” Each side is working to telegraph what is going to happen. Give no surprises / Get no surpises. China is not in a tough spot -- several provinces are  in receivership, and consumer confidence and real estate are falling down 
  • The Philippines just offered the US military bases. In the region, only Nepal and the Maldives are allied with China.
  • Transition energy will be led by China, AI by the USA

The bad news:

  • 88% of Israelis think the war needs to continue
  • Oil flows are at risk in the Mideast. If Israel and Iran “get into it” (>25% chance), then the Strait of Hormuz will close oil will go to $150
  • Islamic extremists will likely attack the US 
  • We have not heard from North Korea — but we will
  • Ukraine:  
    • Best case:  Ukraine will be partitioned. It is running out of people.  
    • Worst case: Ukrainian collapses.  
  • US is politically dysfunctional when it comes to global treaties. Biden and Trump only agree on China — nothing else.