by
Tom Moore on May 7, 2024 11:38:24 AM
I am at the Gartner conference this week. Today’s keynote speaker was not a Gartner person. He drew a laugh when he said things must be wrong when a non-supply-chain guy, a risk consultant, was leading off. His comments resonated:
The good news:
- The EC is getting stronger:
- With a 25% Labor party will win in the UK and reinstitute a customs union with the EC
- Centralized defense
- After India's elections, Modi will have 80% approval, and stability will continue. Modi doesn’t care who wins in the US elections — India is going its own way. Unlike China, the Indian economy is stable and growing
- US/China relationship is “well calibrated.” Each side is working to telegraph what is going to happen. Give no surprises / Get no surpises. China is not in a tough spot -- several provinces are in receivership, and consumer confidence and real estate are falling down
- The Philippines just offered the US military bases. In the region, only Nepal and the Maldives are allied with China.
- Transition energy will be led by China, AI by the USA
The bad news:
- 88% of Israelis think the war needs to continue
- Oil flows are at risk in the Mideast. If Israel and Iran “get into it” (>25% chance), then the Strait of Hormuz will close oil will go to $150
- Islamic extremists will likely attack the US
- We have not heard from North Korea — but we will
- Ukraine:
- Best case: Ukraine will be partitioned. It is running out of people.
- Worst case: Ukrainian collapses.
- US is politically dysfunctional when it comes to global treaties. Biden and Trump only agree on China — nothing else.
