Truck rates are down, ocean carriers are charging less (See graph), and package volume is down. Does this mean we are returning to a more normal time?  My answer is “no.”  There are a number of new and not-so-nice headwinds or factors affecting the supply chain:

• Lower labor participation rates haven’t gotten back to 2019 levels.  This is scary.  Studies show there are a lot of prime working-age men, and increasingly women,  that are staying home and spending 2000 hours a year playing video games. Many are stoned on prescription painkillers and may be on disability. So, unless unemployment spikes, labor shortages will continue
• More inflation and unionization.  Traditionally non-union sites like Starbucks and Amazon are in the cross-hairs of small startup unions.  The big unions have been mostly unsuccessful
• US oil production is unlikely to rise, and refinery capacity will only decline —meaning fuel is at the whim of OPEC and Russia.